In the current situation where Bitcoin has reached new highs and the number of altcoins has surged but liquidity is dispersed, the market is unlikely to see a widespread altcoin season. Investors should be wary of the risks at the end of a bull market and seize the opportunity for phased exits.
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This past Monday (October 6), Bitcoin's price once again set a historical high, reaching around $126,000. Coupled with the various meme coins and get-rich stories on BSC in recent days, it seems some friends can no longer contain their restless emotions.
Watching Bitcoin continuously refresh its historical highs and seeing others casually jump into meme coins to easily earn hundreds of thousands or millions, while looking at the altcoins in their portfolios that remain stagnant, it’s natural to feel a bit complex about it, which is understandable.
As a result, in the past few days, some friends have left messages in the background asking: Can I still buy XXXX in Chinese on BSC now? Will there be another chance to see an altcoin season this year? Can the XXX coin I bought before still rise?...
Regarding the once again booming MemeCoin, I personally will not consider participating at this time, as my main time and energy are not focused on this matter. However, I will always maintain an open attitude and will not oppose anyone participating. Here we still retain the advice from previous articles: do your own research, understand whether you are an insider or outsider, participate selectively and moderately, and only invest funds you can afford to lose.
As for the question of altcoin season, different people may have different interpretations. For example:
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If you believe that the altcoins you hold must surge for it to be called an altcoin season, then I can only wish you good luck.
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If you value indicators like the Altcoin Season Index, as shown in the image below, then it seems we have just experienced a new phase of altcoin season, with recent significant gains in altcoins like BNB, MNT, ZEC, and ASTER.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
- If you care more about market cap changes like TOTAL2 and TOTAL3, we can also see that TOTAL3's market cap has recently reached a historical high of $1.19 trillion, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
In short, it’s not that you have to wait for the so-called altcoin season for your altcoin positions to automatically make money. Remember, we have also organized in previous articles on the topic of altcoin season that the so-called altcoin season at the beginning of this cycle is more mini or localized, and it is unlikely (or will not) to see a widespread altcoin season like in previous bull markets.
According to Coinmarketcap data, during the bull market around 2021, the total number of cryptocurrencies in the market was only about 20,000, while currently (as of October 8, 2025), the total number of cryptocurrencies has exceeded 22 million, and about 50,000 to 100,000 new tokens are being created every day, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
However, market liquidity is limited, meaning that due to the explosive growth in the number of tokens and the extreme dispersion of capital liquidity, it is essentially unrealistic to see a widespread altcoin season like in previous bull markets. Therefore, we must accept this reality. The vast majority of altcoins will ultimately end up at zero.
Having discussed altcoins, let’s continue with macro topics.
Let’s first take a look at the US Dollar Index (DXY). As shown in the image below, we can see that the dollar has been continuously weakening this year. The most direct change brought about by this is the declining attractiveness of dollar assets, while asset types like gold and Bitcoin are continuously setting historical highs.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
Moreover, from the above image, we can also see that the past two bull market phases corresponded to periods of dollar depreciation. For instance, in the year that started in 2017, the dollar index fell nearly 10%, while the crypto market experienced a major bull market, with Bitcoin's overall increase reaching 2300% for the year. Similarly, in the year that started in 2020, the dollar index also experienced a sharp decline, while Bitcoin's overall increase reached 1000%, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
Since we mentioned gold above, let’s continue to compare the trends of Bitcoin and gold, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
From the above image, it is clear that since the beginning of this bull market, both gold and Bitcoin have been rising together. Particularly, gold has performed exceptionally well this year, having surged over 50% since January 1, while Bitcoin's increase has only been around 34% since the beginning of the year.
This also directly reflects that the market's demand for safe-haven assets and risk appetite are increasing simultaneously. That is, funds (investors) are allocating assets like gold for hedging while also chasing high-volatility risk assets like BTC.
Of course, price fluctuations are determined by a combination of various factors, and the dollar index is just a relatively direct reflection. The core factors include the US trade tariffs, geopolitical situations in certain countries and regions, global inflation pressures, and the continuous depreciation of fiat currencies.
Moreover, what we discussed above are mainly the primary directions and trends. In the actual process of change, whether it’s gold and the dollar index or Bitcoin and the dollar index, there can sometimes be temporary decoupling situations. Remember, we have previously analyzed the two decoupling issues between Bitcoin and the dollar index, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
Additionally, in previous articles, we have expressed optimism about opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year and mentioned that Bitcoin has a certain probability of continuing to attempt to break historical highs. This consideration is also based on macro perspectives. This week, Bitcoin has once again set a historical high, and gold has also reached the milestone of $4,000.
In summary, the dollar, as the main barometer of the global capital market, its fluctuations and depreciation usually become the driving force behind the bull market of global risk assets. There exists a certain correlation and cyclical pattern, but bull markets often also imply that new bubbles are forming, which presents both opportunities and greater risks.
Next, let’s take a look at the more macro dimension of Global M2 (i.e., macro liquidity) data. Currently, the total Global M2 has exceeded $113 trillion, setting a historical high. Therefore, from the perspective of macro liquidity, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend of a bull market, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
In fact, we have also mentioned the Global M2 data in previous articles. This indicator has had about a 70-day lag in relation to Bitcoin's movements for some time. If no new major black swan events occur, Bitcoin may rebound to a phase high around June 2025, as shown in the image below.
Read more about whether Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to set historical highs and if the bull market is entering its final stage.
Looking back now, the previous speculation aligns well with the trend. Bitcoin reached a historical high again in early July. If the above correlation remains effective, we might continue to speculate: as the dollar index enters a bottom range of fluctuations starting in July 2025, and M2 growth seems to begin to flatten out, if no new black swan events occur, then theoretically (based on historical cycles and the lagging relationship of liquidity trends), the new high we are currently experiencing (i.e., the Bitcoin rise since the end of September) should be the last phase peak of this year.
In simpler terms, in the coming months, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate in the range of $100,000 to $130,000, and this period often represents the last phase opportunity for some altcoins to perform, which means there will be another so-called altcoin season (localized and mini). Subsequently, we may enter a relatively long period of "phase bear market," unless macro conditions or macro data undergo new changes, then we might have the opportunity (in the first half of next year) to continue enjoying an extension of the bull market.
For ordinary investors, the last phase peak of a bull market is the best time for phased exits, but it is often also when people are most reluctant to exit and even become more FOMO. It is advisable to protect your funds well, not to be easily eliminated by the market, and to leave more possibilities for the future.